Comparing the inference capabilities of binary, trivalent and sigmoid fuzzy cognitive maps

In this paper, we compare the inference capabilities of three different types of fuzzy cognitive maps (FCMs). A fuzzy cognitive map is a recurrent artificial neural network that creates models as collections of concepts/neurons and the various causal relations that exist between these concepts/neurons. In the paper, a variety of industry/engineering FCM applications is presented. The three different types of FCMs that we study and compare are the binary, the trivalent and the sigmoid FCM, each of them using the corresponding transfer function for their neurons/concepts. Predictions are made by viewing dynamically the consequences of the various imposed scenarios. The prediction making capabilities are examined and presented. Conclusions are drawn concerning the use of the three types of FCMs for making predictions. Guidance is given, in order FCM users to choose the most suitable type of FCM, according to (a) the nature of the problem, (b) the required representation capabilities of the problem and (c) the level of inference required by the case. 2008 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.